Does the Rome champion do better in Paris than the Monte Carlo champion?  Is one of the smaller
tournaments a 'good luck charm' - do well there and Roland Garros success will follow?  To answer such
questions a simple point scheme is assigned to RG results as follows:

W - 8
F - 7
SF - 6
QF - 5
4R - 4
3R - 3
2R - 2
1R - 1
DNP - 0

In this way we can get an average RG result for different groups of players.  For example the 2002
Semifinalists at Mallorca were Gaudio, Nieminen, Zabaleta, and Calleri, whose RG finishes were 4R, 3R, 4R,
and 1R, respectively.  Their RG average is 3.00, a thrid round result.

-----------------------

Let's begin by comparing the American warmups with the European warmups:

American (tournament winners) - 1.91
European (tournament winners) - 4.04

American (semifinalists*) - 1.69
European (semifinalists*) - 3.06

No surprise - looking over the list of winners at tournaments like Charlotte and Coral Springs produces
names like Yzaga, Stoltenberg and Woodbridge - not exactly clay giants.  45 tournament winners (there
used to be 3-4 per year; now there is just Houston), led to only one RG Finalist (Chang/Atlanta 95) and one
RG SF (Agassi/Atlanta 92).  Green clay and weak fields made this rather predictable.

American tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by winners' avg. RG result

3.00 - Atlanta (10)
2.33 - Charlotte (3)
1.83 - Coral Springs (6)
1.82 - Houston (11)
1.75 - Orlando (4)
1.33 - Pinehurst (3)
1.00 - Tampa (3)
1.00 - Birmingham (1)
1.00 - Kiawah Island (1)
1.00 - Delray Beach (1)
0.50 - Bermuda (2)


American tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by semifinalists* avg. RG result

2.43 - Atlanta (10)
2.00 - Pinehurst (3)
1.75 - Orlando (4)
1.70 - Houston (11)
1.50 - Delray Beach (1)
1.46 - Coral Springs (6)
1.33 - Charlotte (3)
1.00 - Tampa (3)
1.00 - Birmingham (1)
0.63 - Bermuda (2)
0.50 - Kiawah Island (1)

* this refers to all four semifinalists
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Moving across the Atlantic:

European tourneys (# tourneys held)  - ranked by winners' avg. RG result

6.18 - Monte Carlo (22)
5.86 - Rome (22)
5.25 - Prague (4)
5.23 - Barcelona (22)
5.00 - Madrid (8)
4.05 - Hamburg (19)
4.00 - Portschach (3)
3.86 - Estoril (22)
3.67 - Valencia/Mallorca (9)
3.33 - Belgrade (3)
2.77 - Munich (22)
2.63 - Nice (8)
2.50 - St. Polten (10)
2.30 - Casablanca (20)
1.33 - Bologna (6)
1.00 - Kitzbuhel (1)
0.50 - Umag (2)


European tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by semifinalists avg. RG result

4.30 - Rome (22)
4.16 - Monte Carlo (22)
4.06 - Madrid (8)
3.72 - Barcelona (22)
3.50 - Hamburg (19)
2.84 - Estoril (22)
2.69 - Nice (8)
2.42 - Valencia/Mallorca (9)
2.38 - St. Polten (10)
2.36 - Munich (22)
2.33 - Portschach (3)
2.17 - Belgrade (3)
2.00 - Prague (4)
1.89 - Casablanca (20)
1.71 - Bologna (6)
1.50 - Umag (2)
1.25 - Kitzbuhel (1)


Large Draw European tourneys - ranked by quarterfinalists* avg. RG result

4.33 - Madrid (3)
3.55 - Rome (22)
3.55 - Monte Carlo (22)
3.23 - Barcelona (22)
3.11 - Hamburg (19)

* this refers to all eight QFs

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Some random commentary on Europe:  St. Polten, Bologna and Portschach have been the tournaments
immediately preceeding Roland Garros; few who do well there continue that success in Paris.  Here is a
complete list of good RG results:

1994  Berasategui (Final Bologna / Final RG)
1997  Rafter (Final St. Polten / SF RG)
1997  Norman (SF St. Polten / QF RG)
1998  Rios (W St. Polten / QF RG)
1999  Rios (W St. Polten / QF RG)
2003  Verkerk (SF St. Polten / Final RG)
2005  Davydenko  (W St. Polten / SF RG)
2006  Davydenko  (W Portschach / QF RG)

No one (since 1990, at least) has won the previous week and then won Roland Garros.

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On the other end of the schedule we have Estoril (1990-91;  2000-04, 2008), Casablanca (1992-2003,
2005, 2009-11), Valencia (2004-08) and Houston (2004, 2006-11) as the first clay tournaments after Key
Biscayne.  No one has won any of these first-week tournaments and gone on to win RG.  (Muster won 1995
Estoril, but it wasn't the first clay tournament after KB that year).  Best results:

2001  Ferrero (W Estoril / SF RG).
2005  Puerta (W Casablanca / F RG)
2008  Federer (W Estoril / F RG)
2008  Ferrer (W Valencia / QF RG)  

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Hamburg (no longer on the spring clay schedule) was last in predicting RG success among the large-draw
tournaments.  Often cited was the slow and damp Hamburg clay, compared with the relatively quicker clay
found elsewhere.  Full list of large-draw warm-up / Roland Garros doubles:

Monte Carlo/RG:  
Bruguera 1993 / Muster 1995 / Moya 1998 / Kuerten 2001 / Ferrero 2003 / Nadal 2005-08, 2010-11

Barcelona/RG:  
Gomez 1990 / Muster 1995 / Nadal 2005-08, 2011

Rome/RG:  
Courier 1992 / Muster 1995 / Nadal 2005-07, 2010

Hamburg/RG
Kuerten 2000 / Nadal 2008

Madrid/RG
Federer 2009 / Nadal 2010

--------------------------------------------

Rematches in the Slam final after tuneup encounter:

1993  Rome QF  Courier d. Bruguera  6-3 6-4
1993  RG Final  Bruguera d. Courier 6-4 2-6 6-2 3-6 6-3

1994  Barcelona R16  Bruguera d. Berasategui  6-4 6-3
1994  Monte Carlo R16  Bruguera d. Berasategui 6-7 6-0 6-0
1994  RG Final  Bruguera d. Berasategui 6-3 7-5 2-6 6-1

1995  Rome QF Muster d. Chang  6-3 6-2
1995  RG Final  Muster d. Chang  7-5 6-2 6-4

1998  Monte Carlo QF  Moya d. Corretja  6-3 6-2
1998  RG Final  Moya d. Corretja  6-3 7-5 6-3

2000  Rome Final  Norman d. Kuerten 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4
2000  Hamburg QF  Kuerten d. Norman 6-4 6-2
2000  RG Final  Kuerten d. Norman 6-2 6-3 2-6 7-6

2001  Rome QF  Kuerten d. Corretja 6-2 6-3
2001  RG Final  Kuerten d. Corretja 6-7 7-5 6-2 6-0

2002  Hamburg R64  Costa d. Ferrero 2-6 6-3 6-4
2002  RG Final  Costa d. Ferrero  6-1 6-0 4-6 6-3

2006  Monte Carlo Final  Nadal d. Federer 6-2 6-7 6-3 7-6
2006  Rome Final  Nadal d. Federer  6-7 7-6 6-4 2-6 7-6
2006  RG Final  Nadal d. Federer 1-6 6-1 6-4 7-6

2007  Monte Carlo Final  Nadal d. Federer 6-4 6-4
2007  Hamburg Final  Federer d. Nadal 2-6 6-2 6-0
2007  RG Final  Nadal d. Federer 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4

2008  Monte Carlo Final  Nadal d. Federer 7-5 7-5
2008  Hamburg Final  Nadal d. Federer 7-5 6-7(3) 6-3
2008  RG Final  Nadal d. Federer 6-1 6-3 6-0

2009  Madrid R32  Federer d. Soderling 6-1 7-5
2009  RG Final  Federer d. Soderling 6-1 7-6(1) 6-4

2011  Madrid SF  Nadal d. Federer 5-7 6-1 6-3
2011  RG Final  Nadal d. Federer 7-5 7-6(3) 5-7 6-1

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Clay Warmups 1990-2011