Does the Rome champion do better in Paris than the Monte Carlo champion? Is one of the smaller
tournaments a 'good luck charm' - do well there and Roland Garros success will follow? To answer such
questions a simple point scheme is assigned to RG results as follows:
W - 8
F - 7
SF - 6
QF - 5
4R - 4
3R - 3
2R - 2
1R - 1
DNP - 0
In this way we can get an average RG result for different groups of players. For example the 2002
Semifinalists at Mallorca were Gaudio, Nieminen, Zabaleta, and Calleri, whose RG finishes were 4R, 3R, 4R,
and 1R, respectively. Their RG average is 3.00, a thrid round result.
-----------------------
Let's begin by comparing the American warmups with the European warmups:
American (tournament winners) - 1.91
European (tournament winners) - 4.04
American (semifinalists*) - 1.69
European (semifinalists*) - 3.06
No surprise - looking over the list of winners at tournaments like Charlotte and Coral Springs produces
names like Yzaga, Stoltenberg and Woodbridge - not exactly clay giants. 45 tournament winners (there
used to be 3-4 per year; now there is just Houston), led to only one RG Finalist (Chang/Atlanta 95) and one
RG SF (Agassi/Atlanta 92). Green clay and weak fields made this rather predictable.
American tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by winners' avg. RG result
3.00 - Atlanta (10)
2.33 - Charlotte (3)
1.83 - Coral Springs (6)
1.82 - Houston (11)
1.75 - Orlando (4)
1.33 - Pinehurst (3)
1.00 - Tampa (3)
1.00 - Birmingham (1)
1.00 - Kiawah Island (1)
1.00 - Delray Beach (1)
0.50 - Bermuda (2)
American tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by semifinalists* avg. RG result
2.43 - Atlanta (10)
2.00 - Pinehurst (3)
1.75 - Orlando (4)
1.70 - Houston (11)
1.50 - Delray Beach (1)
1.46 - Coral Springs (6)
1.33 - Charlotte (3)
1.00 - Tampa (3)
1.00 - Birmingham (1)
0.63 - Bermuda (2)
0.50 - Kiawah Island (1)
* this refers to all four semifinalists
--------------------------------------------------------
Moving across the Atlantic:
European tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by winners' avg. RG result
6.18 - Monte Carlo (22)
5.86 - Rome (22)
5.25 - Prague (4)
5.23 - Barcelona (22)
5.00 - Madrid (8)
4.05 - Hamburg (19)
4.00 - Portschach (3)
3.86 - Estoril (22)
3.67 - Valencia/Mallorca (9)
3.33 - Belgrade (3)
2.77 - Munich (22)
2.63 - Nice (8)
2.50 - St. Polten (10)
2.30 - Casablanca (20)
1.33 - Bologna (6)
1.00 - Kitzbuhel (1)
0.50 - Umag (2)
European tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by semifinalists avg. RG result
4.30 - Rome (22)
4.16 - Monte Carlo (22)
4.06 - Madrid (8)
3.72 - Barcelona (22)
3.50 - Hamburg (19)
2.84 - Estoril (22)
2.69 - Nice (8)
2.42 - Valencia/Mallorca (9)
2.38 - St. Polten (10)
2.36 - Munich (22)
2.33 - Portschach (3)
2.17 - Belgrade (3)
2.00 - Prague (4)
1.89 - Casablanca (20)
1.71 - Bologna (6)
1.50 - Umag (2)
1.25 - Kitzbuhel (1)
Large Draw European tourneys - ranked by quarterfinalists* avg. RG result
4.33 - Madrid (3)
3.55 - Rome (22)
3.55 - Monte Carlo (22)
3.23 - Barcelona (22)
3.11 - Hamburg (19)
* this refers to all eight QFs
-----------------------------------------
Some random commentary on Europe: St. Polten, Bologna and Portschach have been the tournaments
immediately preceeding Roland Garros; few who do well there continue that success in Paris. Here is a
complete list of good RG results:
1994 Berasategui (Final Bologna / Final RG)
1997 Rafter (Final St. Polten / SF RG)
1997 Norman (SF St. Polten / QF RG)
1998 Rios (W St. Polten / QF RG)
1999 Rios (W St. Polten / QF RG)
2003 Verkerk (SF St. Polten / Final RG)
2005 Davydenko (W St. Polten / SF RG)
2006 Davydenko (W Portschach / QF RG)
No one (since 1990, at least) has won the previous week and then won Roland Garros.
------------------------------------------
On the other end of the schedule we have Estoril (1990-91; 2000-04, 2008), Casablanca (1992-2003,
2005, 2009-11), Valencia (2004-08) and Houston (2004, 2006-11) as the first clay tournaments after Key
Biscayne. No one has won any of these first-week tournaments and gone on to win RG. (Muster won 1995
Estoril, but it wasn't the first clay tournament after KB that year). Best results:
2001 Ferrero (W Estoril / SF RG).
2005 Puerta (W Casablanca / F RG)
2008 Federer (W Estoril / F RG)
2008 Ferrer (W Valencia / QF RG)
-------------------------------------------
Hamburg (no longer on the spring clay schedule) was last in predicting RG success among the large-draw
tournaments. Often cited was the slow and damp Hamburg clay, compared with the relatively quicker clay
found elsewhere. Full list of large-draw warm-up / Roland Garros doubles:
Monte Carlo/RG:
Bruguera 1993 / Muster 1995 / Moya 1998 / Kuerten 2001 / Ferrero 2003 / Nadal 2005-08, 2010-11
Barcelona/RG:
Gomez 1990 / Muster 1995 / Nadal 2005-08, 2011
Rome/RG:
Courier 1992 / Muster 1995 / Nadal 2005-07, 2010
Hamburg/RG
Kuerten 2000 / Nadal 2008
Madrid/RG
Federer 2009 / Nadal 2010
--------------------------------------------
Rematches in the Slam final after tuneup encounter:
1993 Rome QF Courier d. Bruguera 6-3 6-4
1993 RG Final Bruguera d. Courier 6-4 2-6 6-2 3-6 6-3
1994 Barcelona R16 Bruguera d. Berasategui 6-4 6-3
1994 Monte Carlo R16 Bruguera d. Berasategui 6-7 6-0 6-0
1994 RG Final Bruguera d. Berasategui 6-3 7-5 2-6 6-1
1995 Rome QF Muster d. Chang 6-3 6-2
1995 RG Final Muster d. Chang 7-5 6-2 6-4
1998 Monte Carlo QF Moya d. Corretja 6-3 6-2
1998 RG Final Moya d. Corretja 6-3 7-5 6-3
2000 Rome Final Norman d. Kuerten 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4
2000 Hamburg QF Kuerten d. Norman 6-4 6-2
2000 RG Final Kuerten d. Norman 6-2 6-3 2-6 7-6
2001 Rome QF Kuerten d. Corretja 6-2 6-3
2001 RG Final Kuerten d. Corretja 6-7 7-5 6-2 6-0
2002 Hamburg R64 Costa d. Ferrero 2-6 6-3 6-4
2002 RG Final Costa d. Ferrero 6-1 6-0 4-6 6-3
2006 Monte Carlo Final Nadal d. Federer 6-2 6-7 6-3 7-6
2006 Rome Final Nadal d. Federer 6-7 7-6 6-4 2-6 7-6
2006 RG Final Nadal d. Federer 1-6 6-1 6-4 7-6
2007 Monte Carlo Final Nadal d. Federer 6-4 6-4
2007 Hamburg Final Federer d. Nadal 2-6 6-2 6-0
2007 RG Final Nadal d. Federer 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4
2008 Monte Carlo Final Nadal d. Federer 7-5 7-5
2008 Hamburg Final Nadal d. Federer 7-5 6-7(3) 6-3
2008 RG Final Nadal d. Federer 6-1 6-3 6-0
2009 Madrid R32 Federer d. Soderling 6-1 7-5
2009 RG Final Federer d. Soderling 6-1 7-6(1) 6-4
2011 Madrid SF Nadal d. Federer 5-7 6-1 6-3
2011 RG Final Nadal d. Federer 7-5 7-6(3) 5-7 6-1
----------------------------------------------
tournaments a 'good luck charm' - do well there and Roland Garros success will follow? To answer such
questions a simple point scheme is assigned to RG results as follows:
W - 8
F - 7
SF - 6
QF - 5
4R - 4
3R - 3
2R - 2
1R - 1
DNP - 0
In this way we can get an average RG result for different groups of players. For example the 2002
Semifinalists at Mallorca were Gaudio, Nieminen, Zabaleta, and Calleri, whose RG finishes were 4R, 3R, 4R,
and 1R, respectively. Their RG average is 3.00, a thrid round result.
-----------------------
Let's begin by comparing the American warmups with the European warmups:
American (tournament winners) - 1.91
European (tournament winners) - 4.04
American (semifinalists*) - 1.69
European (semifinalists*) - 3.06
No surprise - looking over the list of winners at tournaments like Charlotte and Coral Springs produces
names like Yzaga, Stoltenberg and Woodbridge - not exactly clay giants. 45 tournament winners (there
used to be 3-4 per year; now there is just Houston), led to only one RG Finalist (Chang/Atlanta 95) and one
RG SF (Agassi/Atlanta 92). Green clay and weak fields made this rather predictable.
American tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by winners' avg. RG result
3.00 - Atlanta (10)
2.33 - Charlotte (3)
1.83 - Coral Springs (6)
1.82 - Houston (11)
1.75 - Orlando (4)
1.33 - Pinehurst (3)
1.00 - Tampa (3)
1.00 - Birmingham (1)
1.00 - Kiawah Island (1)
1.00 - Delray Beach (1)
0.50 - Bermuda (2)
American tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by semifinalists* avg. RG result
2.43 - Atlanta (10)
2.00 - Pinehurst (3)
1.75 - Orlando (4)
1.70 - Houston (11)
1.50 - Delray Beach (1)
1.46 - Coral Springs (6)
1.33 - Charlotte (3)
1.00 - Tampa (3)
1.00 - Birmingham (1)
0.63 - Bermuda (2)
0.50 - Kiawah Island (1)
* this refers to all four semifinalists
--------------------------------------------------------
Moving across the Atlantic:
European tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by winners' avg. RG result
6.18 - Monte Carlo (22)
5.86 - Rome (22)
5.25 - Prague (4)
5.23 - Barcelona (22)
5.00 - Madrid (8)
4.05 - Hamburg (19)
4.00 - Portschach (3)
3.86 - Estoril (22)
3.67 - Valencia/Mallorca (9)
3.33 - Belgrade (3)
2.77 - Munich (22)
2.63 - Nice (8)
2.50 - St. Polten (10)
2.30 - Casablanca (20)
1.33 - Bologna (6)
1.00 - Kitzbuhel (1)
0.50 - Umag (2)
European tourneys (# tourneys held) - ranked by semifinalists avg. RG result
4.30 - Rome (22)
4.16 - Monte Carlo (22)
4.06 - Madrid (8)
3.72 - Barcelona (22)
3.50 - Hamburg (19)
2.84 - Estoril (22)
2.69 - Nice (8)
2.42 - Valencia/Mallorca (9)
2.38 - St. Polten (10)
2.36 - Munich (22)
2.33 - Portschach (3)
2.17 - Belgrade (3)
2.00 - Prague (4)
1.89 - Casablanca (20)
1.71 - Bologna (6)
1.50 - Umag (2)
1.25 - Kitzbuhel (1)
Large Draw European tourneys - ranked by quarterfinalists* avg. RG result
4.33 - Madrid (3)
3.55 - Rome (22)
3.55 - Monte Carlo (22)
3.23 - Barcelona (22)
3.11 - Hamburg (19)
* this refers to all eight QFs
-----------------------------------------
Some random commentary on Europe: St. Polten, Bologna and Portschach have been the tournaments
immediately preceeding Roland Garros; few who do well there continue that success in Paris. Here is a
complete list of good RG results:
1994 Berasategui (Final Bologna / Final RG)
1997 Rafter (Final St. Polten / SF RG)
1997 Norman (SF St. Polten / QF RG)
1998 Rios (W St. Polten / QF RG)
1999 Rios (W St. Polten / QF RG)
2003 Verkerk (SF St. Polten / Final RG)
2005 Davydenko (W St. Polten / SF RG)
2006 Davydenko (W Portschach / QF RG)
No one (since 1990, at least) has won the previous week and then won Roland Garros.
------------------------------------------
On the other end of the schedule we have Estoril (1990-91; 2000-04, 2008), Casablanca (1992-2003,
2005, 2009-11), Valencia (2004-08) and Houston (2004, 2006-11) as the first clay tournaments after Key
Biscayne. No one has won any of these first-week tournaments and gone on to win RG. (Muster won 1995
Estoril, but it wasn't the first clay tournament after KB that year). Best results:
2001 Ferrero (W Estoril / SF RG).
2005 Puerta (W Casablanca / F RG)
2008 Federer (W Estoril / F RG)
2008 Ferrer (W Valencia / QF RG)
-------------------------------------------
Hamburg (no longer on the spring clay schedule) was last in predicting RG success among the large-draw
tournaments. Often cited was the slow and damp Hamburg clay, compared with the relatively quicker clay
found elsewhere. Full list of large-draw warm-up / Roland Garros doubles:
Monte Carlo/RG:
Bruguera 1993 / Muster 1995 / Moya 1998 / Kuerten 2001 / Ferrero 2003 / Nadal 2005-08, 2010-11
Barcelona/RG:
Gomez 1990 / Muster 1995 / Nadal 2005-08, 2011
Rome/RG:
Courier 1992 / Muster 1995 / Nadal 2005-07, 2010
Hamburg/RG
Kuerten 2000 / Nadal 2008
Madrid/RG
Federer 2009 / Nadal 2010
--------------------------------------------
Rematches in the Slam final after tuneup encounter:
1993 Rome QF Courier d. Bruguera 6-3 6-4
1993 RG Final Bruguera d. Courier 6-4 2-6 6-2 3-6 6-3
1994 Barcelona R16 Bruguera d. Berasategui 6-4 6-3
1994 Monte Carlo R16 Bruguera d. Berasategui 6-7 6-0 6-0
1994 RG Final Bruguera d. Berasategui 6-3 7-5 2-6 6-1
1995 Rome QF Muster d. Chang 6-3 6-2
1995 RG Final Muster d. Chang 7-5 6-2 6-4
1998 Monte Carlo QF Moya d. Corretja 6-3 6-2
1998 RG Final Moya d. Corretja 6-3 7-5 6-3
2000 Rome Final Norman d. Kuerten 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4
2000 Hamburg QF Kuerten d. Norman 6-4 6-2
2000 RG Final Kuerten d. Norman 6-2 6-3 2-6 7-6
2001 Rome QF Kuerten d. Corretja 6-2 6-3
2001 RG Final Kuerten d. Corretja 6-7 7-5 6-2 6-0
2002 Hamburg R64 Costa d. Ferrero 2-6 6-3 6-4
2002 RG Final Costa d. Ferrero 6-1 6-0 4-6 6-3
2006 Monte Carlo Final Nadal d. Federer 6-2 6-7 6-3 7-6
2006 Rome Final Nadal d. Federer 6-7 7-6 6-4 2-6 7-6
2006 RG Final Nadal d. Federer 1-6 6-1 6-4 7-6
2007 Monte Carlo Final Nadal d. Federer 6-4 6-4
2007 Hamburg Final Federer d. Nadal 2-6 6-2 6-0
2007 RG Final Nadal d. Federer 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4
2008 Monte Carlo Final Nadal d. Federer 7-5 7-5
2008 Hamburg Final Nadal d. Federer 7-5 6-7(3) 6-3
2008 RG Final Nadal d. Federer 6-1 6-3 6-0
2009 Madrid R32 Federer d. Soderling 6-1 7-5
2009 RG Final Federer d. Soderling 6-1 7-6(1) 6-4
2011 Madrid SF Nadal d. Federer 5-7 6-1 6-3
2011 RG Final Nadal d. Federer 7-5 7-6(3) 5-7 6-1
----------------------------------------------
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| Clay Warmups 1990-2011 |
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